Digital Lag or Sustainable Leap? Strategic Paths for Emerging Economies in the AI Age

This study analyses the strategic dilemma facing emerging economies in the context of the accelerated penetration of artificial intelligence (AI): will it lead to digital dependency, or will it become a catalyst for a sustainable structural leap? In response, a mediation analytical model (of mediated and contingent dependencies) is developed that links AI readiness, institutional capacity, and the degree of ESG integration with digital competitiveness and structural transformation. The study argues that AI’s direct impact on the levels of economic development of a system is unstable and partial. Its impact is expressed through the activities of institutions and is conditional on the strategic integration of sustainability principles. Two alternative models (configurations) are identified: fragmented digitalization, leading to limited added value, and coordinated AI integration, supporting increased economic complexity and long-term sustainability. The article contributes to the literature by providing a contingent analytical model for studying AI-mediated structural transformation.