Longevity as a Real Option: Valuing Flexibility in Life-Cycle Financial Decisions

Authors

Patrik Csapi
University of Pécs, Faculty of Business and Economics
https://orcid.org/0009-0000-8088-9169
Alexandra Posza
University of Pécs, Faculty of Business and Economics

Synopsis

Increasing longevity fundamentally reshapes individual life-cycle decisions by extending planning horizons while simultaneously amplifying uncertainty related to health, income, and employment trajectories. This paper argues that longevity can be conceptualized as a real option that enhances the value of flexibility in long-term personal and financial decision-making. Building on the real options framework, we interpret key life-cycle choices as sequential decisions under uncertainty with embedded options to wait, expand, switch, or abandon. Longer expected lifespans increase the payoff horizon of these options, thereby raising their economic value and altering optimal timing strategies. We demonstrate how rising longevity intensifies the option value of deferred irreversible commitments, particularly in decisions involving substantial sunk costs and long-term payoffs. Drawing parallels with existing applications of real options in fertility and divorce decisions, we extend the framework to longevity-related investments such as preventive healthcare, lifelong learning, and phased retirement. Our contribution lies in reframing longevity not merely as a demographic or actuarial phenomenon, but as a source of economic flexibility that can be priced using financial option theory. The paper opens new avenues for interdisciplinary research connecting financial economics, health economics, and behavioural life-cycle theory, with policy implications for pension systems, labour markets, and individual financial planning in ageing societies.

Author Biographies

Patrik Csapi, University of Pécs, Faculty of Business and Economics

Csapi Patrik earned his MSc in Economics in 2012 from the University of Pécs, Faculty of Business and Economics (Corporate Finance and Accounting specialization). He began his PhD studies in 2024 at the Doctoral School of Business Administration at the University of Pécs. His research focuses on assessing the economic and social value of addiction treatment institutions, with particular attention to capturing the impact and social benefits of the services they provide. Since 2012, his professional career has been linked to an addiction treatment institution, where he works in the finance department and contributes to supporting financial operations and management processes. He has held a certified accountant qualification since 2009. In 2016, he obtained a GDPR Officer qualification, and in 2024 he further expanded his professional expertise by earning a Certified Audit Specialist qualification.

Pécs, Hungary. E-mail: csapi.patrik@ktk.pte.hu

Alexandra Posza, University of Pécs, Faculty of Business and Economics

Posza Alexandra received her BSc in Business Administration and Management in 2011 from the University of Pécs, Faculty of Business and Economics, and earned her MSc in Finance in 2014. In parallel with her master’s studies, she obtained a certified accountant qualification. She completed her PhD at the University of Pécs Doctoral School of Business Administration in 2021. Since September 2016, she has been affiliated with the Department of Finance and Accounting, first as Assistant Lecturer and, from February 2022, as Assistant Professor. She teaches corporate finance–related courses at higher education vocational, bachelor’s, and master’s levels in both Hungarian and English. Her main research interests include real options and investment theory, as well as ESG (environmental, social, and governance) finance.

Pécs, Hungary. E-mail: poszaa@ktk.pte.hu

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Published

March 17, 2026

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Csapi, P., & Posza, A. (2026). Longevity as a Real Option: Valuing Flexibility in Life-Cycle Financial Decisions. In P. Šprajc, D. Maletič, N. Petrović, I. Iztok, A. Škraba, D. Tomić, & A. Žnidaršič Mohorič (Eds.), & (Ed.), 45th International Conference on Organizational Science Development: Organization and the Longevity Society, Conference Proceedings (Vols. 45., pp. 99-114). University of Maribor Press. https://doi.org/10.18690/um.fov.3.2026.8